Crypto Analyst Josh has shared his insights on the long-term bitcoin price predictions for the ongoing crypto bull cycle, discussing essential aspects. He touched upon the current phase of the cycle, key indicators for identifying the market’s peak, and potential peak levels.
Examining the monthly Bitcoin chart, each candle symbolizes a month of price movements spanning over a decade. The chart vividly illustrates various bull and bear cycles closely aligned with Bitcoin halvings.
Bitcoin halvings, which curtail the new Bitcoin supply, historically trigger substantial bull markets by lessening sell pressure from miners and enhancing scarcity. Typically, bull markets initiate about a year before each halving and last around three years, succeeded by a one-year bearish phase.
Historical Halving Cycles
First Halving (November 2012): Bull market until late 2013, followed by a bear market in 2014 and early 2015.
Second Halving (July 2016): Continued bull market until late 2017, then a bear market in 2018.
Third Halving (May 2020): Bull market extending into 2021, with the bear market starting in 2022.
Fourth Halving (April 2023): Expected to sustain the bull market for approximately a year, potentially transitioning to the next bear market by mid to late 2025.
Weekly Bitcoin Chart
Super Trend Indicator: This indicator, indicating green during bull markets and red during bear markets, currently signals the continuity of the bull trend. The critical level to monitor is $52,000; a weekly closure below this could indicate a bearish reversal.
Bull Market Extension: Multiple charts and indicators imply the likelihood of the ongoing bull market persisting for roughly another year, based on historical trends. By utilizing Fibonacci extension levels from prior bull market peaks to bear market lows, the analyst has devised a model for forecasting bull market peaks.
This model has accurately projected previous bull market peaks by gauging extensions (e.g., 350%, 260%, and 200%) of retracement levels. Employing the same approach, the model anticipates a probable peak around $120,000 for Bitcoin in this cycle, with a range of $110,000 to $140,000.
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