‘Uncomfortable’ Bitcoin Indicator Could Decide BTC’s Next Move, According to Benjamin Cowen

A popular crypto analyst suggests that one key indicator could influence the next price movement of Bitcoin (BTC).

In a recent video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen shares with his 803,000 YouTube followers that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is giving off concerning signals. The RSI is a momentum oscillator used to determine if an asset is overbought or oversold.

Examining two-week candles, Cowen observes that each of Bitcoin’s price peaks aligned with the RSI hitting a consistent downward resistance level – a pattern that occurred in March as well.

“When analyzing the two-week RSI, it evokes a sense of discomfort… The two-week RSI has touched this upper trend line, which has historically marked major tops for Bitcoin. This trend was identified in 2011, 2013, 2017, and most recently in January 2021. While Bitcoin did surpass this level slightly afterwards, the pattern is unmistakable and may cause unease. This is why adhering to risk metrics is advisable.”

However, a different perspective emerges when analyzing the monthly chart. Cowen raises the possibility of Bitcoin following a pattern similar to 2019, where the RSI fails to breach the 66 level initially before eventually hitting the downward resistance level that has historically indicated market tops.

“The question arises whether Bitcoin will surge by year-end, resulting in a left-translated peak. Alternatively, will it mimic the 2019 scenario, where the RSI declined from June 2019 to March the following year? If Bitcoin were to follow this pattern, we might see a decline for about nine months, leading into December 2024.”