Renowned crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen is cautioning that a particular macroeconomic indicator could hinder Bitcoin’s (BTC) surge above $70,000.
Cowen informs his 873,000 followers on the social media platform X that he believes Bitcoin’s behavior around the $70,000 psychological level will determine whether BTC adheres to the cyclical or monetary policy perspective.
The analyst highlights that while Bitcoin typically experiences a rally during the fourth quarter of a halving year, the projected breakout might face delays if BTC follows the monetary policy perspective influenced by macroeconomic data.
“The cyclical viewpoint of BTC suggests an upward trend in Q4 2024.
The monetary policy perspective indicates a downtrend (followed by an uptrend in early 2025).
While it was logical to dismiss the cyclical viewpoint earlier in the year, the current scenario presents a more balanced outlook between the two perspectives.
If BTC manages to surpass $70,000 convincingly, it favors the cyclical viewpoint prevailing.
If BTC falters around $70,000 (or slightly below) and retraces towards $64,000, then the monetary policy perspective is likely to dominate, postponing the breakout until 2025.”
According to Cowen, the next significant move for BTC could be influenced by the release of US labor market data scheduled for November 1st.
“The forthcoming labor market data release this week is likely to dictate short-term direction.”
Earlier this month, Cowen mentioned that Bitcoin might face bearish conditions if the US unemployment rate continues to rise towards the end of the year. The analyst recently pointed out that investors are likely awaiting the upcoming jobs report data before making decisions regarding BTC.
“Market participants will be keen to ascertain whether the recent decline in unemployment is a sustained trend or merely a temporary uptick.”
If the labor market statistics disappoint, Cowen warns that BTC could experience a capitulation event.
“BTC might undergo another rapid decline (similar to April and August this year), potentially culminating in December.”
In April, BTC witnessed an 18% correction and a 25% pullback in August.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,239, reflecting an almost 5% increase over the past day.
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