Fidelity Investments director of global macro Jurrien Timmer suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially surpass gold in market value, although not in the near future.
In a detailed analysis shared on social media, Timmer illustrated his perspective with a chart comparing the projected growth of gold and Bitcoin over time.
He pointed out that if gold maintains its historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% since 1970, and Bitcoin follows a power law adoption curve or the internet’s S-curve growth model, the two assets could converge within the next 10 to 20 years.
Timmer stated:
“If Bitcoin continues to grow as suggested by these models, it seems that hard money is leading the race, indicating that gold may appreciate at a rate higher than 8% annually. Therefore, I believe that gold will always remain as Bitcoin’s more subdued older sibling.”
While Timmer’s prediction is more conservative compared to other industry forecasts, such as those by Galaxy and Strategy founder Michael Saylor, it reflects the current volatility in the crypto markets.
Institutional Support
Despite recent price fluctuations, major institutions like Fidelity and BlackRock have continued to demonstrate confidence in Bitcoin. Both firms injected a combined $89 million into Bitcoin ETFs, with Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) receiving $97.1 million in inflows.
This ongoing institutional support signals a growing belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, even amidst short-term price challenges.
Saylor’s Bold Prediction
Contrasting Timmer’s cautious stance, Michael Saylor projected a more aggressive outlook during the DC Blockchain Summit by suggesting that Bitcoin’s market cap could reach $500 trillion. He emphasized Bitcoin’s role in replacing traditional assets like gold and real estate with a digital, decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative.
Saylor compared this shift to historic changes in monetary systems, highlighting the potential for the US to capture a significant portion of global Bitcoin value once the asset reorganization settles.
As institutional interest in Bitcoin grows and long-term models forecast exponential adoption, the discussion around Bitcoin’s position relative to gold is evolving. It is no longer a matter of if Bitcoin can rival gold, but rather when and under what circumstances it could achieve parity.
While Timmer acknowledges the possibility of a “flippening,” he maintains that gold, with its stability and established history, currently maintains an advantage.
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