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Recent on-chain data analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s brief dip to $100,000 actually strengthened the market structure rather than weakening it, according to a report by Glassnode released on June 10.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $109,500, following a 4% surge on June 9 that saw it reach a weekly peak of $110,600.
The report highlighted that despite a 9% pullback from the record high of $111,965 on June 7, the realized losses amounted to only $200 million, significantly lower than previous corrections in this cycle.
Capitulation primarily among new entrants
Most of the selling activity was observed among holders of BTC aged less than a week, indicating capitulation among recent market participants rather than widespread selling across long-standing wallets. Addresses holding Bitcoin for more than three months did not engage in profit-taking during this period.
Moreover, open interest decreased by $2.3 billion, marking the seventh-largest deleveraging event since 2023. This decline suggested that the drop was primarily driven by liquidation in derivatives rather than spot market selling.
Bitcoin’s price rebounded before testing the short-term holder cost basis at $97,600 and managed to stay above the psychologically significant $100,000 level.
The report emphasized that maintaining this range would sustain the cyclical momentum, as 41% of trading days since the 2022 low have witnessed deeper pullbacks.
Long-term holders were making daily profits of $930 million at the recent peak, matching the pace seen during March’s surge above $100,000 but still below the peak of $1.64 billion observed in early April.
Long-term holders holding firm
Despite increased spending, the collective balance of long-term holders continued to rise, a trend not commonly seen in late-cycle scenarios. The report attributed this resilient supply to exchange-traded fund (ETF) custody programs and other institutional channels that remove coins from active circulation.
The realized profit-loss ratio for long-term holders reached 9.4, a level exceeded on fewer than 16% of trading days since 2011 and often associated with market euphoria. Additionally, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution revealed a dense cluster of coins acquired within the $100,000 to $103,000 range.Â
Bitcoin’s price currently sits at the upper end of this cluster, with historical trading volume above it relatively low, creating an “air gap” zone that could lead to rapid movements if demand remains strong.
The Realized Supply Density, which measures the portion of supply with a cost basis close to the spot price, has risen alongside the recent rally, indicating heightened sensitivity.
Options traders seem unfazed, as implied volatility for both short and long tenors continues to decline, a trend that has preceded volatility spikes in previous cycles. The report highlighted this contrast as a potential setup for significant movements if the price retests the all-time high.
Despite last week’s decline, the subdued response and swift recovery above $100,000 suggest that the uptrend remains intact and that demand absorbed the largest futures-driven shakeout in two months.
