Here’s why Solana could be a trillion-dollar network by 2030

Over the years, the prevailing belief in both the crypto space and traditional finance has been that when institutional adoption reaches its peak, Ethereum will emerge as the blockchain of choice for Wall Street.

This assumption is not surprising given that Ethereum is the largest smart-contract network, the go-to platform for developers, and the ecosystem that has defined the concept of programmable finance as we know it today.

However, as institutional efforts in tokenization gain momentum, a new hypothetical question has emerged: what if the blockchain that institutions ultimately rely on is not Ethereum, but Solana?

While this scenario is purely speculative, the fact that it is being considered reflects a shift in how market infrastructure is being assessed.

The Evolution of Solana’s Image

Solana’s early reputation was shaped by retail speculation. Its low fees, high throughput, and ease of deployment made it a natural choice for meme coins, high-velocity trading, and experimental retail applications. For a long time, this chaotic environment was synonymous with the network’s cultural identity.

However, the same characteristics that fueled its speculative frenzy, such as sub-second finality, minimal fees, and high-performance capabilities, are now being repositioned as the building blocks for institutional-grade settlement.

According to Solscan data, Solana can handle over 3,000 transactions per second at an average cost of half a penny. In contrast, Ethereum is still limited at the base layer, relying on rollups to increase throughput and manage costs.

This performance profile has captured the attention of analysts monitoring the convergence of blockchains and traditional capital markets.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently described Solana as “the new Wall Street,” arguing that its low-latency execution model is more aligned with institutional workflows than general-purpose alternatives.

Furthermore, stablecoin issuers and tokenization companies have reinforced this narrative by developing increasingly advanced products on the Solana network.

Despite this, Solana’s ambitions are still ahead of its current reality.

Currently, the blockchain network averages around 284 user-initiated value-moving instructions per second, significantly below its advertised throughput.

In comparison, Nasdaq executes approximately 2,920 trades per second and processes about $463 billion in daily volume, dwarfing Solana’s roughly $6 billion.

Despite this economic density gap between the two platforms, Solana’s developers claim that upcoming upgrades will optimize validator performance, improve scheduling, and reduce block contention. These advancements could potentially bring the network closer to the reliability standard expected of market infrastructure.

However, the achievability of this goal remains uncertain. Nevertheless, this ambition signals a strategic shift, indicating that Solana aims to be more than just a fast blockchain. It aspires to be an execution engine capable of supporting regulated financial activities at scale.

As Galaxy Research stated:

“[Solana] is now evolving toward a cohesive vision of “Internet Capital Markets,” a system capable of supporting the full spectrum of digital financial activity, from retail speculation and consumer apps to enterprise-grade infrastructure and tokenized real-world assets.”

Estimating Solana’s Value with Wall Street’s Adoption by 2030

The question of Solana’s potential value if embraced by Wall Street has led to the development of new valuation frameworks.

Artemis CEO Jon Ma recently published one such model, suggesting that once traditional assets transition to blockchain, blockchains will be valued more as infrastructure rather than speculative assets.

In Ma’s model, the key value drivers are throughput, cost efficiency, fee capture, and the ability to facilitate high-volume, low-latency financial transactions. Dominance of narrative becomes less significant. His model predicts that the global tokenization market could reach $10 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030.

Assuming Solana captures just 5% of that market activity, its market capitalization could approach $880 billion.

The model takes into account factors such as annual turnover, projected inflation declines, and revenue rates from priority fees, base fees, and Jito tips.

These projections do not guarantee certainty but highlight how the market may evaluate blockchains once real-world assets are extensively tokenized.

Tokenized real-world assets already total around $35.8 billion, nearly double the figure from late 2024, according to Rwa.xyz. As this figure grows, performance and transaction costs become increasingly crucial.

In this context, Solana’s appeal lies in the attributes that initially defined its retail culture: speed, low fees, and scalability without relying on external execution layers.

While Ethereum’s strengths such as security, tool maturity, and regulatory acceptance remain the preferred choice for institutions, the tokenization trend necessitates a fresh perspective in evaluating blockchains.