New Bitcoin ‘top signal’ is in – The bear market indicator you hate to see

Could crypto IPOs be the ultimate top signal, or is it just a pattern that investors keep revisiting during the late stages of a market cycle?

Looking at the data, a clear trend emerges. Coinbase’s direct listing coincided with Bitcoin’s record high of nearly $64,000 on April 14, 2021.

Similarly, Stronghold Digital Mining priced its IPO in late October 2021, just three weeks before Bitcoin reached its peak near $68,789 in November.

Fast forward to 2025, and we see Bullish’s debut in August and Figure’s pricing in September closely aligning with Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,198 in early October.

Grayscale joined the party with a public IPO filing in November 2025, just over a month after the market top, adding to the growing list of late-cycle IPOs.

There seems to be a recurring pattern during bull markets in the crypto space. As prices surge, companies related to exchanges, brokers, miners, and asset managers tend to go public, often coinciding with peak volumes, fees, and media attention.

Crypto IPOs in a bull market

Coinbase’s timing in 2021 became synonymous with calling the top, as it lined up perfectly with Bitcoin’s peak. Stronghold’s IPO in 2021 also came close to the cycle high after a temporary market pause earlier in the year.

In 2025, Bullish and Figure followed a similar trajectory, with their listings preceding Bitcoin’s peak in October. This sequence doesn’t establish a rule, but it provides a useful reference point for monitoring late-cycle trends based on fixed dates and detailed financial disclosures.

These IPOs offer insights into risk appetite in real-time. Bullish’s strong debut and high valuation, along with Figure’s pricing around the time of Bitcoin’s peak, highlight the dynamics at play.

As Grayscale’s filing revealed, revenue and income figures can influence valuation, especially when faced with fee pressures and changing market conditions.

Analyzing the IPO signal in a bull market

One way to track this pattern is by measuring the days from each IPO to the market top. The windows in 2021 and 2025 fall within a tradable range of approximately 60 days before to 30 days after the peak.

By anchoring these dates to the cycle high, we can see a consistent cadence in IPO timing that reflects a strategic preference for entering the market during periods of strong upward momentum.

While late-cycle readings don’t necessarily signal the end of the bull run, they do provide valuable insights into market dynamics and investor behavior during peak periods.

Conclusion

Crypto IPOs don’t predict market tops with certainty, but they do tend to cluster near the end of strong bull runs when demand for earnings is at its peak. This cycle has followed a similar script, highlighting the interplay between public markets and crypto market cycles.