Venture capital firm a16z crypto research partner and associate professor in the Department of Computer Science at Georgetown University, Justin Thaler, has advised the cryptocurrency industry not to panic about quantum computing threats.
Thaler argues that the timeline for cryptographically relevant quantum computers is still far off and that rushing into post-quantum cryptography prematurely could pose more immediate risks than the theoretical threat itself.
Is blockchain currently under a quantum threat?
In a detailed blog post shared on various platforms, Thaler challenges exaggerated predictions about quantum computing capabilities.
He defines a cryptographically relevant quantum computer as a fault-tolerant machine capable of breaking the secp256k1 elliptic curve used in Bitcoin and Ethereum, or RSA-2048 encryption, within approximately one month.
Thaler emphasizes that we are far from achieving a cryptographically relevant quantum computer based on current public milestones and resource estimates.
He suggests that a breakthrough in the 2020s is highly unlikely, pointing to the U.S. government’s 2035 target for widespread post-quantum cryptography adoption in federal systems as a more realistic planning horizon.
The a16z position differentiates between various cryptographic systems and their vulnerabilities.
While acknowledging the need for immediate deployment of post-quantum encryption due to ongoing attacks, Thaler states that digital signatures in Bitcoin and Ethereum are not at risk because blockchain data is inherently public.
Thaler also mentions that zero-knowledge proofs generated before the arrival of quantum computers will remain trustworthy.
How are blockchain stakeholders addressing the quantum threat?
While Thaler provides recommendations for stakeholders, the blockchain industry is taking steps to prepare for the post-quantum era, with the Ethereum Foundation forming a post-quantum team.
Coinbase has established an advisory board on quantum computing and blockchain, including industry experts like Justin Drake from the Ethereum Foundation.
This board is responsible for assessing the impact of quantum computing on the blockchain ecosystem and offering guidance to the community.
Franklin Bi from Pantera Capital believes that blockchain systems may be more prepared for the post-quantum phase compared to traditional financial institutions on Wall Street.
He emphasizes the importance of blockchain networks evolving into post-quantum “safe havens” for data and assets.
Thaler’s recommendations
Thaler advises all stakeholders to take the quantum threat seriously but not to assume that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will emerge before 2030.
He suggests deploying hybrid encryption immediately in areas where long-term confidentiality is crucial and costs are manageable.
Thaler also recommends that blockchains begin planning for post-quantum signatures without rushing the process.
For privacy chains that encrypt or conceal transaction details, Thaler suggests prioritizing a transition sooner if performance allows.
Stakeholders should focus on implementation security rather than quantum threat mitigation in the short term, according to Thaler.
He calls for increased funding for quantum computing development and advises assessing new information as progress reports rather than prompts for immediate action.
Thaler acknowledges that there may be innovations that shorten timelines, but also warns of potential bottlenecks that could delay progress.
