According to a well-known crypto analyst, the macroeconomic environment is beginning to shift in favor of Bitcoin (BTC).
Crypto trader Michaël Van De Poppe informs his 818,600 followers on X that the business cycle is gaining momentum.
“It’s crucial to understand that perspective is key. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to exceed 50 for the first time in over three years. This prolonged ‘bear’ market has not been favorable for the business cycle or Bitcoin. The recent rally in Bitcoin was primarily driven by the launch and liquidity of the ETF. However, now is the time for the markets to awaken.”
The question arises whether the business cycle truly impacts Bitcoin’s price.
“There is much debate on the correlation between a positive PMI and Bitcoin entering a bear market. This is because macroeconomic conditions have significantly changed.
In the previous cycle: towards the end of 2021, the Fed initiated QT and raised interest rates substantially.
This time: QE has commenced as the economy shows signs of weakness and interest rates decrease.
Gold and silver recently peaked due to the end of this macroeconomic phase. Over the next one to three years, we can expect a strong and final bull run for Bitcoin and crypto.”
When asked to clarify his statement about a “final” bull run, Poppe suggested it would be the last surge before a potential economic downturn.
On the other hand, prominent crypto analyst and trader Benjamin Cowen tells his 1.1 million followers on X that the ISM may not be a reliable indicator for Bitcoin’s performance.
“Another example showing the ISM may not accurately predict BTC price movements:
January 2019:
June 2019:
During this period, the ISM declined over six months while the price of BTC surged by 4x.”
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $75,469, marking a 3.7% decrease for the day.
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