Stellar (XLM) has shown early signs of a revival with on-chain activity and derivatives participation picking up pace. The token has surged over 8% in the last 24 hours, trading around $0.718, as improving market sentiment bolsters selective strength in altcoins.
While there isn’t a single catalyst driving this rally, the increasing social media buzz around Stellar’s partnerships with MoneyGram and Visa, as well as its expanding role in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, seem to be fueling renewed interest.
Despite this, XLM lags in price structure while excelling in underlying activity—a divergence that often precedes significant moves. The crucial question now is whether this momentum will lead to a confirmed breakout.
Stellar Gains Traction as Network Activity Spikes
Recent data reveals that Stellar’s daily active users have surged to nearly 114,000, marking a clear breakout from its usual range of 60,000 to 80,000 users over the past year. This spike indicates a renewed level of engagement on the network, suggesting increased usage beyond mere speculation.
![\"stellar](\"https://image.coinpedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/25164829/image-297-1024x425.png\")
Simultaneously, derivatives data corroborates this trend. Open interest has surged to around $178 million, indicating active trading. Funding rates have turned slightly positive, showing a mild bullish bias without signs of overheating. These metrics collectively point to growing market participation despite relatively subdued price action.
XLM Derivatives Data Signals Rising Participation, But Breakout Remains Unconfirmed
On the daily chart, Stellar price continues to trade within a broader downtrend marked by lower highs despite recent recovery attempts. The price is currently around the $0.17–$0.18 range, indicating a short-term bounce rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
![\"stellar](\"https://image.coinpedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/25164830/image-298-1024x636.png\")
Volume and Order Flow: Buy-sell volume data shows mixed momentum, with selling pressure still evident in multiple sessions. Although recent green bars indicate renewed buying interest, the overall delta remains relatively neutral, suggesting that buyers have not seized full control.
Open Interest (OI): Open interest has surged to nearly $178 million, reflecting a spike in market participation. This increase indicates active position-building by traders. However, without a corresponding price breakout, rising OI could also indicate leveraged positions, potentially leading to volatility if positions unwind.
Liquidations: Liquidation data remains stable with no major spikes, indicating that the market has not experienced significant squeezes yet, keeping both upside and downside scenarios open.
Funding Rate: The funding rate has turned slightly positive, signaling a mild bullish sentiment among derivatives traders. Crucially, the rate is not elevated, indicating the market is not overheated, leaving room for further upside if momentum strengthens.
Key Technical Outlook
- Resistance: $0.19–$0.20 (critical breakout zone)
- Support: $0.16–$0.165
As long as XLM price remains below $0.20, the structure stays range-bound with a bearish bias. A confirmed breakout above this zone, supported by rising volume, could pave the way towards $0.22 and $0.25. On the downside, a failure to maintain momentum could lead to a retest of the $0.16 support, especially if increasing open interest triggers a long liquidation event.
Will the Bullish Momentum Sustain?
Stellar displays signs of underlying strength, with both on-chain and derivatives data pointing to growing interest. However, until price action confirms this shift with a breakout above key resistance, the trend remains uncertain. While Stellar’s rising activity and derivatives metrics offer early bullish signals, price confirmation remains the missing link.
For a sustained uptrend, XLM will require:
- Continued growth in network usage
- Strong volume accompanying any breakout
- Support from the broader altcoin market
Without these elements, the current setup risks turning into a short-term buildup rather than a lasting trend reversal. Stellar (XLM) price is currently at a crossroads—one that could either trigger a breakout or reinforce its existing range.
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