Second Bitcoin ETF issuer predicts BTC hitting $1M

Make CryptoSlate preferred on

Matthew Sigel of VanEck stated that Bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million by the next US Presidential term.

This translates to a 1,150% increase as a target for 2031 within a market still grappling with establishing support around the $80,000 level.

CryptoSlate\’s Bitcoin page shows BTC trading near $80,200 on May 9, with a market capitalization of around $1.61 trillion and a record high of $126,198 achieved on Oct. 6, 2025.

A jump to $200,000, another popular price target lately, would necessitate Bitcoin to surge approximately 2.5 times from its current level. A move to $1 million would require an increase of roughly 12.5 times.

Related Reading

Table of Contents

Toggle

Bitcoin’s $150,000 forecast slash proves the institutional “sure thing” is actually a high-stakes gamble for 2026

Recent data indicates that $50 billion in ETF inflows could potentially disrupt the four-year cycle and trap retail bears.

Jan 23, 2026 · Liam \’Akiba\’ Wright

Bitcoin has experienced larger percentage shifts in the past, but the current forecast cycle hinges on a critical market question: whether the recent surge in institutional demand is robust enough to absorb the selling pressure influencing the rebound.

Why seven-figure math is back

In line with other seven-figure projections, VanEck\’s Matthew Sigel has forecasted a potential $1 million valuation for Bitcoin, suggesting that it could achieve this milestone by securing a significant portion of the expanding store-of-value market.

According to Sigel, Bitcoin could hit $1 million if it captures approximately 17% of the total market, which is expected to grow to around $121 trillion over the next decade.

While Sigel\’s projection spans a five-year timeframe, it aligns with the broader narrative emphasizing Bitcoin\’s evolution into a prominent asset class for institutions, advisers, sovereign entities, and younger investors seeking long-term financial alternatives beyond traditional banking systems.

In a 2024 report, VanEck\’s research team outlined a longer-term scenario envisioning a $2.9 million Bitcoin price by 2050, predicated on BTC becoming a significant global medium of exchange and reserve asset.

Although the recent $1 million forecast is more immediate, it underscores the notion of Bitcoin as a macro asset whose value proposition hinges on widespread adoption beyond its core crypto audience.

While these bullish projections may influence market sentiment, the practical realization of these targets relies on the underlying market dynamics. Despite the flurry of optimistic forecasts, the market\’s structural integrity must support the price trajectory. The Fear and Greed Index currently indicates a prevailing sense of caution.

Related Reading

Bitcoin’s next breakout will depend on whether investors treat $80K as relief, resistance, or the start of a new recovery

Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture where short-term holders typically either capitulate or hold their ground.

May 2, 2026 · Andjela Radmilac

The low-$80,000 test holds the key

Recent coverage by CryptoSlate has framed Bitcoin\’s resurgence above $80,000 as a pivotal test between selling pressure and ETF-driven demand. While long-term holders have been capitalizing on the uptrend, ETF buyers have helped offset some of the supply.

This standoff underscores why the $90,000 level is emerging as the next critical barrier.

The optimistic scenario envisions that if ETF-driven demand persists in absorbing coins from long-term holders, the low-$80,000 region could transform into a support base rather than a price ceiling. Subsequently, a move towards $90,000 would demonstrate that institutional participation is driving genuine price discovery, rather than merely cushioning a rebound.

Related Reading

Bitcoin’s $80k rebound exposes a new risk channel tied to AI stocks

The fate of Bitcoin’s rebound hinges on whether ETF demand can withstand AI-led risk appetite driving the next market phase.

May 4, 2026 · Liam \’Akiba\’ Wright

While a leap to $200,000 remains a challenging target, a successful breach of the six-figure mark would make discussions about 2026 price targets more feasible without disconnecting from market realities.

An ecosystem that can sustain $80,000, break through $90,000, and do so with robust spot demand would align more closely with the bullish narrative presented by Fundstrat, rather than a market that consistently rejects the same resistance levels.

Conversely, if ETF demand wanes and long-term holders persist in offloading during rallies, the $1 million speculation may evolve into a discussion centered on long-term adoption rather than an immediate price driver.

In such a scenario, the five-year and 10-year forecasts would remain conceptually sound while the market continues to grapple within its current range.

This dichotomy highlights the distinction between price targets and the supporting evidence required for their relevance. Bitcoin may defer the $1 million debate for now and focus on demonstrating whether the influx of buyers through ETFs and institutional channels can withstand selling pressures around recent resistance levels.

Therefore, the immediate focus lies on a smaller threshold than the loftiest target on record. A decisive move past $90,000 would not validate the seven-figure projections outright, but it would signal the market’s ability to absorb selling pressure while attracting fresh capital to spot Bitcoin products.

Key Catalysts for Market Dynamics

The critical task for Bitcoin is to maintain its position above the low $80,000 mark and rally towards $90,000 with substantial spot demand to solidify its upward momentum.

ETF flow metrics, distribution patterns among long-term holders, and any additional validation of the VanEck forecasts will hold greater significance than mere price targets from industry insiders.

While the seven-figure projections shift the narrative towards Bitcoin’s role as a global savings vehicle, the market’s compliance with these forecasts hinges on current market conditions.

Overall, the prevailing sentiment suggests that institutional researchers are once again embracing seven-figure projections while the market evaluates whether ETF-driven demand can transform the $80,000 threshold from a point of stress to a launchpad for further growth.