Bitcoin has achieved a significant milestone as its realized capitalization surpasses $1 trillion for the first time, as reported by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
This increase comes shortly after BTC’s spot price reached a new all-time high above $123,000, highlighting the strong demand from investors in recent times.
Unlike traditional market capitalization, realized cap calculates the value of Bitcoin based on the price of each coin’s last on-chain movement. This method provides a more accurate representation of the actual capital stored in the network and is considered a more reliable indicator of investor confidence.
James Check, an on-chain analyst at Checkonchain, emphasized the significance of this metric, referring to it as the “most important Bitcoin market metric.”
He explained:
“[The metric] values every coin at the price when it last transacted onchain. If you DCA’d 0.1 BTC back at a $10,000 price, it will be saved at 0.1x$10,000 = $1,000, irrespective of spot price. When it transacts again, it will be revalued, capturing capital flows in or out of the asset. What this metric means, is Bitcoiners have ‘saved’ $1 Trillion in real capital in Bitcoin.”
Furthermore, Glassnode revealed that 25% of Bitcoin’s realized cap was accumulated this year, reflecting the increasing flow of capital into the asset amid growing macro and institutional interest.
Bitcoin price encounters resistance
Despite this achievement, market analysts caution that BTC must surpass a key resistance level at $123,370 before aiming for new highs.
Joao Wedson, CEO of blockchain analytical firm Alphractal, warned that BTC’s recent rejection at this second “Alpha Price” level is a short-term concern.
The Alpha Price is a dynamic on-chain model that combines realized price, historical average cap, and other factors to estimate potential resistance and support zones.
Wedson explained:
“[Alpha Price] behaves almost like pressure zones: lower levels tend to act as strong support, while upper levels often signal increased selling pressure—especially when most wallets are deep in profit. These thresholds reflect shifts in investor sentiment and can define where buyers and sellers are likely to react.”
If BTC manages to surpass the $123,370 resistance, Alphractal predicts the next major target to be between $143,000 and $146,000.
However, there is a looming risk of an overheated derivatives market.
According to Alphractal, long positions, which indicate traders expecting further price increases, have been dominant in recent months.
While this indicates bullish sentiment, it also raises the possibility of a sudden “Long Squeeze,” where falling prices force highly leveraged long positions to liquidate, potentially intensifying downward pressure on the market.
