Bitcoin may be gearing up for a countertrend rally, according to a crypto strategist who accurately predicted the current downtrend. Analyst Benjamin Cowen, sharing his insights on X to his 1.1 million followers, believes that Bitcoin could spark a rally very soon after dropping to the low $70,000 range.
“BTC just dropped below the April 2025 low. If it does not bounce soon, this is going to be one hell of a midterm year. If it can bounce, it gives us a few months and gets us closer to October without so much bad price action (likely the bottom in time).
I feel like the bear narrative has been really strong for a while, and so I would expect a countertrend rally soon so that it gives the bulls some hope for a while.
However, I have learned my lesson in prior cycles, so I do not attempt to trade them. Countertrend rallies can happen, but sometimes they happen when you least expect them, not when everyone expects them. It makes sense to assume that a sweep of a prior low would offer some relief, as that has been true for BTC even during the bull market.”
Cowan also cautions that Bitcoin might experience a deeper correction to its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $57,000, before initiating a rally based on historical patterns.
“But in 2014/2018/2022 when BTC fell below the 100-W SMA, it was straight to the 200-W SMA before any relief occurred. The time to sell BTC was late last year, not panicking on dumps in the midterm year. I just try and focus on the bigger picture and the bigger picture is that late Q3/early Q4 will be a better time to move real money back into the market.
Between now and then it is just people trying to make money during difficult times by trying to trade support/resistance levels.”
Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,082, down 4.1%.
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