An influential crypto analyst is sounding the alarm, cautioning that the remainder of 2024 may not bode well for altcoins.
In a recent video update, cryptocurrency strategist Benjamin Cowen informs his 813,000 YouTube followers that based on historical trends, altcoins seem poised to experience a sharp decline towards the end of the year and surrender to Bitcoin (BTC).
Cowen notes that this capitulation coincides with the start of a new cycle of interest rate cuts.
“If you trace back from the previous cycle, 2018, 2019 to 2020, you can observe that it essentially touched this trend line three times, with the third touch marking the bottom.
We can see that this interest rate cycle, this economic cycle, has extended a bit longer, and if you connect the dots again – one, two, and three – the third touch of the trend line might actually occur towards the end of the year. Coincidentally, if you follow this trend line where the dots connect, it reaches 0.25 in Q4, which aligns with my prediction: alt/Bitcoin pairs capitulating before the year ends.
So, I believe there is a possibility that alt/Bitcoin pairs will face rejection at 0.4, possibly spiking slightly above it, but ultimately retracing back to range lows before the end of the year.”
According to Cowen, altcoins are expected to underperform against the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization due to diminishing global liquidity, which he argues is a significant driving factor for digital assets.
“One of the key factors to consider is what is causing this downturn, and arguably a major contributor is net liquidity. By examining the global net liquidity approximation, it is evident that it has been forming lower highs and lower lows, and if you overlay this chart with alt/Bitcoin pairs, you can clearly see that alt/Bitcoin pairs began to decline around the same time as the net liquidity appeared to dip.”
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