Cardano (ADA) price is on the verge of breaking its 2025 support. The large-cap altcoin has consistently weakened its support range between $0.57 and $0.51 upon retesting year-to-date (YTD).
This support range was breached during the October 11, 2025, crypto crash. Since then, the ADA price has been declining on a weekly basis. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, ADA price must maintain its last line of defense around $0.51 to confirm a rebound towards $0.7.
Source: X
Two Reasons Why Cardano Price Will Drop Below $0.5 Soon
Low crypto liquidity amidst heightened fear of further capitulation
According to on-chain data analysis from Santiment, whale investors and retail traders have been selling aggressively recently. Consequently, the fear of further crypto capitulation remains high, as indicated by CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index, which stood at around 31/100 at the time of writing.
The reopening of the U.S. government after a 40-day shutdown is a significant relief for the markets. However, the overall liquidity has not yet reached the crypto market as investors continue to focus on AI-centric stocks.
Nonetheless, the anticipated Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing (QE) next month, coupled with increasing global reserves, is expected to be bullish for the broader crypto market, including ADA.
Fractal pattern repetition: the current bull market mirrors the 2020/2021 cycle
From a technical analysis perspective, ADA price has been mirroring a similar fractal pattern to its 2020/2021 bull cycle.
In the weekly timeframe, it is evident that ADA’s parabolic surge into the price discovery phase commenced after retesting its multi-year support/resistance level established during the bear markets.
