Controversy surrounds prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket as trading activity related to Iran airstrikes and the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, sparks backlash.
CEO of Kalshi, Tarek Mansour, has defended the platform’s decision regarding a market focused on Khamenei’s potential removal as Supreme Leader. Mansour emphasized that markets directly linked to death are not permitted on the platform.
“We do not list markets associated with death. In cases where potential outcomes involve death, we establish rules to prevent profiting from such events. That was our approach in this situation.”
Mansour explained that the market was settled at the last traded price prior to the reported time of death, as per the platform’s regulations. Additionally, all fees related to the market were refunded. Users who entered positions after the reported time of death received reimbursement based on the difference between their purchase price and the last traded price before the event.
Mansour stated that Kalshi will enhance how it communicates market rules and disclosures to users moving forward.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps alleged that six suspected insiders profited around $1.2 million by betting on a U.S. strike on Iran. The wallets in question were funded within 24 hours, placed “yes” bets shortly before the strike, and targeted an outcome on February 28.
These allegations have sparked discussions on the transparency and fairness of geopolitical prediction markets.
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