Can US-Iran new peace deal signal keep Bitcoin above $70,000?

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Bitcoin surged above $70,000 on Wednesday following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran brokered by Pakistan, linked to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Based on CryptoSlate\’s data, the leading cryptocurrency climbed 5% to a high of $72,734 before pulling back to $71,477 at the time of publication.

Data from CryptoQuant indicated that within two hours of the ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin recorded approximately $3 billion in taker buy volume on Binance’s derivatives markets, highlighting the rapid repositioning of investors in response to the evolving situation.

The announcement of the ceasefire also triggered a broad relief rally across global markets. Brent crude oil plummeted by 13.8% to $94.25, while US crude oil dropped by 15.4% to $95.52. In contrast, Germany’s DAX index surged by 4.7%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 5.4%, and South Korea’s Kospi index jumped by 6.9%.

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However, this recent surge above $70,000 is not the first time that Bitcoin has crossed this threshold in response to positive developments in the US-Iran conflict.

Maksym Sakharov, co-founder and group CEO of WeFi, commented to CryptoSlate:

“Whenever there’s tension — geopolitics, macro, and even institutional or micro — the weak investors and traders are always shaken out. The fear is now partly gone with the ceasefire news, but holding onto the $70,000 mark would take more than just a ceasefire.”

Therefore, the focus shifts to whether the current rally can be sustained or if Bitcoin will face another round of selling pressure.

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Oil remains a critical factor

The Strait of Hormuz continues to play a crucial role in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its current upward trajectory.

Approximately 20% of global oil exports pass through this waterway, posing a direct threat to energy prices, shipping costs, and inflation expectations in the event of any disruption.

During the recent escalation, reports indicated that around 130 million barrels of crude oil and 46 million barrels of refined fuel were stranded on about 200 tankers in the Gulf region due to disrupted traffic.

As a result, the price of Brent crude oil had surged by 55% since February 28, with some physical oil markets pricing crude at nearly $150 per barrel before the ceasefire was announced.

This sharp market reaction post-ceasefire can be attributed to more than just the elimination of a headline risk. It also alleviates one of the most immediate threats to the global macroeconomic outlook: a prolonged energy shock that could reignite inflation precisely when central banks were seeking leeway to ease monetary policy.

Notably, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee had warned that the conflict was leading to a stagflation shock, while research from the Dallas Fed suggested that an extended disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push US headline inflation above 4% by the end of the year.

However, with the announcement of the peace deal, Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro, mentioned to CryptoSlate that the decline in oil prices indicated that the markets were beginning to factor in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to him, this decrease in oil prices is generally supportive for global markets as it relieves pressure on consumers, moderates inflation expectations, and eliminates one of the headwinds that had been weighing on equities in recent weeks.

For Bitcoin, this shift is crucial. The leading cryptocurrency did not surge as oil prices rose and fears of war intensified. Instead, it reacted positively when oil prices fell, equities rallied, and investors started to anticipate a less severe inflation shock.

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Price surpasses $70,000, but support remains uncertain

While Bitcoin’s recent breach of the $70,000 mark is significant, the trading patterns suggest that there is still limited conviction.

Earlier this month, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin had been confined to a range between $60,000 and $70,000, with approximately 8.4 million BTC still in a losing position and a substantial supply concentration above the market between $80,000 and $126,000.

This situation presents dual challenges. Firstly, many holders are waiting for higher prices to offset losses or exit their positions. Secondly, any move beyond $70,000 faces significant resistance due to the substantial overhead supply before a sustained upward trend can be established.

Additionally, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains inconsistent, with significant inflows and outflows recorded for the digital asset.

US spot exchange-traded fund data compiled by SoSoValue has displayed sharp fluctuations in recent weeks, with the nine funds experiencing a $173.7 million outflow on April 1, followed by a $471.4 million inflow on April 6, and subsequent outflows on April 7.

These figures indicate that Bitcoin is yet to garner strong institutional support, as a market capable of maintaining levels above $70,000 for an extended period typically exhibits more consistent spot demand than one marked by alternating large inflows and outflows over a few trading sessions.

Moreover, data from derivatives markets suggests that traders are not interpreting the recent surge as a confirmed breakout.

Greeks.live stated that Bitcoin’s push toward $72,000 has primarily improved sentiment by alleviating concerns of a sudden market crash rather than instilling expectations for a sustained uptrend.

The firm observed that while BTC’s implied volatility on major-expiry options has decreased as the price surged, near-term implied volatility has also seen a decline.

It further noted that although the negative skew lessened with the price increase, the overall message from options positioning indicates that traders are less apprehensive about an immediate collapse but are not fully convinced of a lasting upward trend.

What lies ahead for Bitcoin?

For Bitcoin to maintain levels above $70,000 in the coming weeks, the ceasefire must withstand subsequent news cycles. Normalization of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is essential.

Oil prices should remain below the recent panic levels near $109, while inflation concerns need to recede rather than intensify. ETF flows must continue to show a positive balance, rather than alternating between significant inflows and outflows over a few days.

If these conditions are met, Bitcoin could establish a trading range between $70,000 and $78,000, with potential for further upside toward the low $80,000s if spot demand strengthens and derivatives positioning shifts away from defensive postures.

Andre Dragosch, Bitwise’s head of research in Europe, suggested that a sustained break above $80,000 would likely shift market sentiment from bearish to bullish, as several key valuation and cost-basis indicators converge around that level.

However, if the ceasefire collapses, shipping disruptions resume, and oil prices rebound, Bitcoin may retreat back into the $62,000 to $69,000 range that characterized the market before the recent surge.